读完弗雷德的博文，让我忍不住翻出当年为了说服他投资 Airbnb 而与他往来的邮件。读起来非常有趣。你可以看到弗雷德在反复权衡这笔交易时的思虑过程。
Reading Fred's post made me go back and look at the emails I exchanged with him at the time, trying to convince him to invest in Airbnb. It was quite interesting to read. You can see Fred's mind at work as he circles the deal.
弗雷德和 Airbnb 的创始人们非常慷慨地同意我公开这些邮件往来（仅删减了一句涉及 Airbnb 战略机密且对对话整体不重要的内容）。这生动地展示了创业生态中极少被外界（除了参与者本身）看到的一面：投资人如何努力说服同行去投资自己旗下的项目。此时此刻，成百上千场类似的对话正在发生，但如果说以前有谁公开过，我反正没见过。甚至连 Airbnb 团队自己当时都从未见过这些邮件。
Fred and the Airbnb founders have generously agreed to let me publish this email exchange (with one sentence redacted about something that's strategically important to Airbnb and not an important part of the conversation). It's an interesting illustration of an element of the startup ecosystem that few except the participants ever see: investors trying to convince one another to invest in their portfolio companies. Hundreds if not thousands of conversations of this type are happening now, but if one has ever been published, I haven't seen it. The Airbnbs themselves never even saw these emails at the time.
在 YC，我们在幕后做了大量这类工作。因为我们投资了如此多的公司，而且投资阶段又非常早，以至于其他投资人有时需要被反复说服才能看出这些公司的价值。不过，我通常不会像这次这么死缠烂打。弗雷德当时一定觉得我挺烦人的。
We do a lot of this behind the scenes stuff at YC, because we invest in such a large number of companies, and we invest so early that investors sometimes need a lot of convincing to see their merits. I don't always try as hard as this though. Fred must have found me quite annoying.
from: Paul Graham to: Fred Wilson, AirBedAndBreakfast Founders date: Fri, Jan 23, 2009 at 11:42 AM subject: meet the airbedsOne of the startups from the batch that just started, AirbedAndBreakfast, is in NYC right now meeting their users. (NYC is their biggest market.) I'd recommend meeting them if your schedule allows.I'd been thinking to myself that though these guys were going to do really well, I should introduce them to angels, because VCs would never go for it. But then I thought maybe I should give you more credit. You'll certainly like meeting them. Be sure to ask about how they funded themselves with breakfast cereal.There's no reason this couldn't be as big as Ebay. And this team is the right one to do it.--pgfrom: Brian Chesky to: Paul Graham cc: Nathan Blecharczyk, Joe Gebbia date: Fri, Jan 23, 2009 at 11:40 AM subject: Re: meet the airbedsPG,Thanks for the intro!Brianfrom: Paul Graham to: Brian Chesky cc: Nathan Blecharczyk, Joe Gebbia date: Fri, Jan 23, 2009 at 12:38 PM subject: Re: meet the airbedsIt's a longshot, at this stage, but if there was any VC who'd get you guys, it would be Fred. He is the least suburban-golf-playing VC I know.He likes to observe startups for a while before acting, so don't be bummed if he seems ambivalent.--pgfrom: Fred Wilson to: Paul Graham, date: Sun, Jan 25, 2009 at 5:28 PM subject: Re: meet the airbedsThanks PaulWe are having a bit of a debate inside our partnership about the airbed concept. We'll finish that debate tomorrow in our weekly meeting and get back to you with our thoughtsThanksFredfrom: Paul Graham to: Fred Wilson date: Sun, Jan 25, 2009 at 10:48 PM subject: Re: meet the airbedsI'd recommend having the debate after meeting them instead of before. We had big doubts about this idea, but they vanished on meeting the guys.from: Fred Wilson to: Paul Graham date: Mon, Jan 26, 2009 at 11:08 AM subject: RE: meet the airbedsWe are still very suspect of this idea but will take a meeting as you suggestThanksfredfrom: Fred Wilson to: Paul Graham, AirBedAndBreakfast Founders date: Mon, Jan 26, 2009 at 11:09 AM subject: RE: meet the airbedsAirbed team -Are you still in NYC?We'd like to meet if you areThanksfredfrom: Paul Graham to: Fred Wilson date: Mon, Jan 26, 2009 at 1:42 PM subject: Re: meet the airbedsIdeas can morph. Practically every really big startup could say, five years later, "believe it or not, we started out doing ___." It just seemed a very good sign to me that these guys were actually on the ground in NYC hunting down (and understanding) their users. On top of several previous good signs.--pgfrom: Fred Wilson to: Paul Graham date: Sun, Feb 1, 2009 at 7:15 AM subject: Re: meet the airbedsIt's interestingOur two junior team members were enthusiasticThe three "old guys" didn't get itfrom: Paul Graham to: Fred Wilson date: Mon, Feb 9, 2009 at 5:58 PM subject: airbnbThe Airbeds just won the first poll among all the YC startups in their batch by a landslide. In the past this has not been a 100% indicator of success (if only anything were) but much better than random.--pgfrom: Fred Wilson to: Paul Graham date: Fri, Feb 13, 2009 at 5:29 PM subject: Re: airbnbI met them todayThey have an interesting businessI'm just not sure how big it's going to befredfrom: Paul Graham to: Fred Wilson date: Sat, Feb 14, 2009 at 9:50 AM subject: Re: airbnbDid they explain the long-term goal of being the market in accommodation the way eBay is in stuff? That seems like it would be huge. Hotels now are like airlines in the 1970s before they figured out how to increase their load factors.from: Fred Wilson to: Paul Graham date: Tue, Feb 17, 2009 at 2:05 PM subject: Re: airbnbThey did but I am not sure I buy thatABNB reminds me of Etsy in that it facilitates real commerce in a marketplace model directly between two peopleSo I think it can scale all the way to the bed and breakfast marketBut I am not sure they can take on the hotel marketI could be wrongBut even so, if you include short term room rental, second home rental, bed and breakfast, and other similar classes of accommodations, you get to a pretty big opportunityfredfrom: Paul Graham to: Fred Wilson date: Wed, Feb 18, 2009 at 12:21 AM subject: Re: airbnbSo invest in them! They're very capital efficient. They would make an investor's money go a long way.It's also counter-cyclical. They just arrived back from NYC, and when I asked them what was the most significant thing they'd observed, it was how many of their users actually needed to do these rentals to pay their rents.--pgfrom: Fred Wilson to: Paul Graham date: Wed, Feb 18, 2009 at 2:21 AM subject: Re: airbnbThere's a lot to likeI've done a few things, like intro it to my friends at Foundry who were investors in Service Metrics and understand this modelI am also talking to my friend Mark Pincus who had an idea like this a few years ago.So we are working on itThanks for the leadFredfrom: Paul Graham to: Fred Wilson date: Fri, Feb 20, 2009 at 10:00 PM subject: airbnb already spreading to prosI know you're skeptical they'll ever get hotels, but there's a continuum between private sofas and hotel rooms, and they just moved one step further along it.[link to an airbnb user]This is after only a few months. I bet you they will get hotels eventually. It will start with small ones. Just wait till all the 10-room pensiones in Rome discover this site. And once it spreads to hotels, where is the point (in size of chain) at which it stops? Once something becomes a big marketplace, you ignore it at your peril.--pgfrom: Fred Wilson to: Paul Graham date: Sat, Feb 21, 2009 at 4:26 AM subject: Re: airbnb already spreading to prosThat's true. It's also true that there are quite a few marketplaces out there that serve this same marketIf you look at many of the people who list at ABNB, they list elsewhere tooI am not negative on this one, I am interested, but we are still in the gathering data phase.fred