(本文改编自 2007 年在斯坦福大学举办的 ASES 峰会上的主题演讲。)
(This essay is derived from a keynote talk at the 2007 ASES Summit at Stanford.)
对大多数黑客来说,投资人的世界是陌生的——部分是因为投资人与黑客截然不同,部分是因为他们往往在暗处运作。无论作为创始人还是投资人,我与这个世界打交道已有多年,但至今仍未完全看透它。
The world of investors is a foreign one to most hackers—partly because investors are so unlike hackers, and partly because they tend to operate in secret. I've been dealing with this world for many years, both as a founder and an investor, and I still don't fully understand it.
在这篇文章中,我将列出关于投资人一些颇为令人意外的发现。其中有些也是我去年才明白的。
In this essay I'm going to list some of the more surprising things I've learned about investors. Some I only learned in the past year.
教黑客如何与投资人打交道,大概是我们在 Y Combinator 做的第二重要的事情。对一家创业公司来说,最重要的事情是做出好产品。但大家都知道这很重要。投资人的危险之处在于,黑客根本不知道自己对这个陌生世界的了解有多匮乏。
Teaching hackers how to deal with investors is probably the second most important thing we do at Y Combinator. The most important thing for a startup is to make something good. But everyone knows that's important. The dangerous thing about investors is that hackers don't know how little they know about this strange world.
1. 投资人才是成就创业中心的关键。
1. The investors are what make a startup hub.
大约一年前,我曾试图探究复制硅谷需要什么。我得出的结论是,关键要素是富人和书呆子——也就是投资人和创始人。制造技术只需要人,其他所有人都会跟着人走。
About a year ago I tried to figure out what you'd need to reproduce Silicon Valley. I decided the critical ingredients were rich people and nerds—investors and founders. People are all you need to make technology, and all the other people will move.
如果要进一步缩小范围,我认为投资人才是瓶颈所在。这倒不是因为他们对创业公司的贡献更大,而仅仅是因为他们最不愿意搬家。他们有钱。他们不会只因为阿尔伯克基有几个聪明的黑客值得投资,就搬到那里去。相反,黑客会为了寻找投资人而搬到湾区。
If I had to narrow that down, I'd say investors are the limiting factor. Not because they contribute more to the startup, but simply because they're least willing to move. They're rich. They're not going to move to Albuquerque just because there are some smart hackers there they could invest in. Whereas hackers will move to the Bay Area to find investors.
2. 天使投资人最关键。
2. Angel investors are the most critical.
投资人有几种类型。两大主要类别是天使投资人和风投:风投投的是别人的钱,而天使投资人投的是自己的钱。
There are several types of investors. The two main categories are angels and VCs: VCs invest other people's money, and angels invest their own.
尽管天使投资人名气没那么大,但他们或许才是催生硅谷更关键的要素。要是没有天使投资人先投一步,风投投资的大多数公司根本走不到那一步。风投自己都说,在融 A 轮的公司里,有一半到四分之三此前都已经拿过外部投资。[1]
Though they're less well known, the angel investors are probably the more critical ingredient in creating a silicon valley. Most companies that VCs invest in would never have made it that far if angels hadn't invested first. VCs say between half and three quarters of companies that raise series A rounds have taken some outside investment already. [1]
天使投资人愿意资助比风投风险更高的项目。他们还能给出宝贵的建议,因为(与风投不同)他们当中许多人自己就曾是创业公司创始人。
Angels are willing to fund riskier projects than VCs. They also give valuable advice, because (unlike VCs) many have been startup founders themselves.
Google 的故事印证了天使投资人所起的关键作用。很多人都知道 Google 拿了 Kleiner 和红杉的钱。但多数人没意识到的是,那已经有多晚。那轮风投是 B 轮;投前估值已经达到了 7500 万美元。在那个节点,Google 已经是一家成功的公司了。说到底,Google 是靠天使投资的钱做起来的。
Google's story shows the key role angels play. A lot of people know Google raised money from Kleiner and Sequoia. What most don't realize is how late. That VC round was a series B round; the premoney valuation was $75 million. Google was already a successful company at that point. Really, Google was funded with angel money.
最典型的硅谷创业公司竟然是靠天使投资做起来的,这看似有些奇怪,但其实并不意外。风险总是与回报成正比。因此,最成功的创业公司在最初阶段往往看起来极度冒险,而这恰恰是风投碰都不会碰的类型。
It may seem odd that the canonical Silicon Valley startup was funded by angels, but this is not so surprising. Risk is always proportionate to reward. So the most successful startup of all is likely to have seemed an extremely risky bet at first, and that is exactly the kind VCs won't touch.
天使投资人从哪里来?来自其他创业公司。因此,像硅谷这样的创业中心受益于一种类似市场效应的东西,只是在时间上存在滞后:创业公司之所以在这里,是因为曾经有创业公司在这里。
Where do angel investors come from? From other startups. So startup hubs like Silicon Valley benefit from something like the marketplace effect, but shifted in time: startups are there because startups were there.
3. 天使投资人不喜欢张扬。
3. Angels don't like publicity.
既然天使投资人这么重要,为什么我们听到的多是风投的消息?因为风投喜欢曝光。他们需要向作为自己“客户”的投资人推销自己——也就是出资给他们打理的大学捐赠基金、养老基金和富豪家族——同时也需要向可能找他们拿钱的创始人推销自己。
If angels are so important, why do we hear more about VCs? Because VCs like publicity. They need to market themselves to the investors who are their "customers"—the endowments and pension funds and rich families whose money they invest—and also to founders who might come to them for funding.
天使投资人不需要向出资人推销自己,因为他们投的是自己的钱。他们也不想向创始人推销自己:他们可不想被不知从哪儿冒出来的人拿着商业计划书纠缠不休。其实风投也不想。无论是天使投资人还是风投,几乎都是纯靠熟人引荐来获取项目。[2]
Angels don't need to market themselves to investors because they invest their own money. Nor do they want to market themselves to founders: they don't want random people pestering them with business plans. Actually, neither do VCs. Both angels and VCs get deals almost exclusively through personal introductions. [2]
风投想要打造强大的品牌,并不是为了吸引更多主动找上门来的商业计划书,而是为了在与其他风投竞争时拿下项目。相比之下,天使投资人之间极少有直接竞争,因为 (a) 他们投的项目较少,(b) 他们乐于合投,并且 (c) 他们入局的阶段,可供选择的项目源流更为宽广。
The reason VCs want a strong brand is not to draw in more business plans over the transom, but so they win deals when competing against other VCs. Whereas angels are rarely in direct competition, because (a) they do fewer deals, (b) they're happy to split them, and (c) they invest at a point where the stream is broader.
4. 大多数投资人,尤其是风投,与创始人不是一路人。
4. Most investors, especially VCs, are not like founders.
有些天使投资人是、或者曾经是黑客。但大多数风投是另一类人:他们是做交易的人。
Some angels are, or were, hackers. But most VCs are a different type of people: they're dealmakers.
如果你是黑客,可以做这样一个思想实验,来理解为什么基本上没有黑客出身的风投:如果有一份工作,你再也不能亲手做任何东西,而是成天听别人讲那些(大多很糟糕的)项目、决定要不要投钱,投了之后还得去坐董事会席位,你愿意干吗?对大多数黑客来说,这毫无乐趣可言。黑客喜欢创造东西。做风投就像是去当行政官僚。
If you're a hacker, here's a thought experiment you can run to understand why there are basically no hacker VCs: How would you like a job where you never got to make anything, but instead spent all your time listening to other people pitch (mostly terrible) projects, deciding whether to fund them, and sitting on their boards if you did? That would not be fun for most hackers. Hackers like to make things. This would be like being an administrator.
因为大多数风投和创始人不是同一个物种,你很难猜透他们在想什么。如果你是黑客,你上一次和这类人打交道大概还是在高中。在大学里,你或许只是在去实验室的路上从他们兄弟会门前经过。但别低估他们。他们在自己的世界里,就像你在你的世界里一样专业。他们的过人之处在于察言观色,以及把交易谈成对自己有利的局面。若想在这方面胜过他们,最好三思而后行。
Because most VCs are a different species of people from founders, it's hard to know what they're thinking. If you're a hacker, the last time you had to deal with these guys was in high school. Maybe in college you walked past their fraternity on your way to the lab. But don't underestimate them. They're as expert in their world as you are in yours. What they're good at is reading people, and making deals work to their advantage. Think twice before you try to beat them at that.
5. 大多数投资人都是趋势投资者。
5. Most investors are momentum investors.
因为大多数投资人是交易型人才而非技术人员,他们通常搞不懂你究竟在做什么。当年作为创始人时,我知道大多数风投不懂技术。我也知道有些人赚了大钱。然而直到最近我才把这两件事联系在一起思考:“风投怎么能靠投资自己不懂的东西赚到钱呢?”
Because most investors are dealmakers rather than technology people, they generally don't understand what you're doing. I knew as a founder that most VCs didn't get technology. I also knew some made a lot of money. And yet it never occurred to me till recently to put those two ideas together and ask "How can VCs make money by investing in stuff they don't understand?"
答案是,他们就像趋势投资者。你通过注意到股票价格的突然变化,就可以(或者曾经可以)赚到很多钱。当股票向上跳空时,你买入;当它突然下跌时,你卖出。实际上,你是在进行内幕交易,却不知道自己掌握了什么内幕。你只知道有人知道些什么,而这正在推动股价波动。
The answer is that they're like momentum investors. You can (or could once) make a lot of money by noticing sudden changes in stock prices. When a stock jumps upward, you buy, and when it suddenly drops, you sell. In effect you're insider trading, without knowing what you know. You just know someone knows something, and that's making the stock move.
大多数风险投资人就是这样运作的。他们不会试图审视某个项目并预测它是否会爆发。他们的赢法是,比其他人稍微早一点注意到某个项目正在爆发。这产生的回报几乎与真正有能力挑选赢家一样好。他们可能要比在最开始就加入时多付一点钱,但也只是多一点点。
This is how most venture investors operate. They don't try to look at something and predict whether it will take off. They win by noticing that something is taking off a little sooner than everyone else. That generates almost as good returns as actually being able to pick winners. They may have to pay a little more than they would if they got in at the very beginning, but only a little.
投资人总是说他们最看重的是团队。实际上,他们最关心的是你的流量,其次是其他投资人的看法,最后才是团队。如果你还没有任何流量,他们就会退而求其次,看第二点——其他投资人的看法。正如你可以想象的那样,这会导致创业公司的“股价”产生剧烈波动。这一周每个人都想要你,求着不要被排除在交易之外。但只要有一个大投资人对你冷淡下来,下一周就没人回你的电话了。我们经常看到创业公司在几天之内就从炙手可热变得无人问津,或者从无人问津变得炙手可热,而实际上什么都没有改变。
Investors always say what they really care about is the team. Actually what they care most about is your traffic, then what other investors think, then the team. If you don't yet have any traffic, they fall back on number 2, what other investors think. And this, as you can imagine, produces wild oscillations in the "stock price" of a startup. One week everyone wants you, and they're begging not to be cut out of the deal. But all it takes is for one big investor to cool on you, and the next week no one will return your phone calls. We regularly have startups go from hot to cold or cold to hot in a matter of days, and literally nothing has changed.
应对这种现象有两种策略。如果你极度自信,可以尝试顺势而为:先向相对低阶的风投要一小笔钱,等激起兴趣后,再向声望更高的风投要更大的金额,将市场热度一层层推高,然后在顶点“出手”。这极其凶险,即便成功也得耗费数月。换作是我,不会轻易尝试。我的建议是宁求稳妥:只要有人给出一份还算公道的条款,接下便是,然后抓紧把精力放回把公司做起来。创业公司的成败取决于产品的优劣,而非融资条款谈得有多漂亮。
There are two ways to deal with this phenomenon. If you're feeling really confident, you can try to ride it. You can start by asking a comparatively lowly VC for a small amount of money, and then after generating interest there, ask more prestigious VCs for larger amounts, stirring up a crescendo of buzz, and then "sell" at the top. This is extremely risky, and takes months even if you succeed. I wouldn't try it myself. My advice is to err on the side of safety: when someone offers you a decent deal, just take it and get on with building the company. Startups win or lose based on the quality of their product, not the quality of their funding deals.
6. 大多数投资人都在寻找本垒打。
6. Most investors are looking for big hits.
风险投资人喜欢有可能上市的公司。那是获得巨额回报的地方。他们知道任何单一创业公司上市的概率都很小,但他们希望投资那些至少有机会上市的公司。
Venture investors like companies that could go public. That's where the big returns are. They know the odds of any individual startup going public are small, but they want to invest in those that at least have a chance of going public.
目前风投的运作模式似乎是:投资一大批公司,绝大多数都死掉,其中有一家成为 Google。靠这少数几场大胜来弥补其他投资的亏损。这意味着,多数风投只有在你有可能成为下一个 Google 时才会投你。他们不在乎那些稳赚不赔、能卖个 2000 万美元的公司。哪怕希望再渺茫,你的公司也必须有成为参天大树的潜质。
Currently the way VCs seem to operate is to invest in a bunch of companies, most of which fail, and one of which is Google. Those few big wins compensate for losses on their other investments. What this means is that most VCs will only invest in you if you're a potential Google. They don't care about companies that are a safe bet to be acquired for $20 million. There needs to be a chance, however small, of the company becoming really big.
天使投资人在这方面有所不同。如果能以足够低的估值切入,他们很乐意投资一家最可能的结果是以 2000 万美元被收购的公司。当然,他们也喜欢有可能上市的公司。因此,一个雄心勃勃的长期计划会让所有人皆大欢喜。
Angels are different in this respect. They're happy to invest in a company where the most likely outcome is a $20 million acquisition if they can do it at a low enough valuation. But of course they like companies that could go public too. So having an ambitious long-term plan pleases everyone.
拿了风投的钱,你就得全力以赴,因为风投交易的架构从机制上就防范了过早被收购。一旦拿了风投的钱,他们是不会允许你早早卖掉公司的。
If you take VC money, you have to mean it, because the structure of VC deals prevents early acquisitions. If you take VC money, they won't let you sell early.
7. 风投偏好大额投资。
7. VCs want to invest large amounts.
由于运作的是投资基金,风投天生就想投大钱。如今一支典型的风投基金往往有数亿美元。如果是 4 亿美元由 10 位合伙人来管,每人就得投出 4000 万美元。风投通常要进被投公司的董事会。如果平均每笔交易只有 100 万美元,每位合伙人就得进 40 家公司的董事会,这可绝不好受。因此他们更偏爱大单子,能一次性把大笔资金配置出去。
The fact that they're running investment funds makes VCs want to invest large amounts. A typical VC fund is now hundreds of millions of dollars. If $400 million has to be invested by 10 partners, they have to invest $40 million each. VCs usually sit on the boards of companies they fund. If the average deal size was $1 million, each partner would have to sit on 40 boards, which would not be fun. So they prefer bigger deals, where they can put a lot of money to work at once.
如果你不需要太多钱,风投不会觉得捡了便宜。这反而可能让你没那么有吸引力,因为这意味着他们的投资无法给竞争对手筑起足够高的准入门槛。
VCs don't regard you as a bargain if you don't need a lot of money. That may even make you less attractive, because it means their investment creates less of a barrier to entry for competitors.
天使投资人的处境不同,因为他们投的是自己的钱。只要潜在回报足够好,他们乐意投资小额资金——有时甚至低至 20,000 美元。所以如果你在做一些花销不大的事情,去找天使投资人吧。
Angels are in a different position because they're investing their own money. They're happy to invest small amounts—sometimes as little as $20,000—as long as the potential returns look good enough. So if you're doing something inexpensive, go to angels.
8. 估值都是虚构的。
8. Valuations are fiction.
风投自己也承认,估值不过是一种人为产物。他们定下你需要多少钱,以及他们想拿多少股份,这两个约束条件倒推出来,就成了估值。
VCs admit that valuations are an artifact. They decide how much money you need and how much of the company they want, and those two constraints yield a valuation.
估值是随着投资规模的增加而水涨船高的。一家天使投资人愿意按 100 万美元估值投进 5 万美元的公司,不可能按同样的估值从风投那里拿 600 万美元。否则创始人手里的股份加起来还剩不到七分之一(因为期权池也得从这七分之一里扣)。大多数风投不会想要这种局面,这也是为什么你绝不可能听说有哪个风投会按 100 万美元的投前估值去投 600 万美元。
Valuations increase as the size of the investment does. A company that an angel is willing to put $50,000 into at a valuation of a million can't take $6 million from VCs at that valuation. That would leave the founders less than a seventh of the company between them (since the option pool would also come out of that seventh). Most VCs wouldn't want that, which is why you never hear of deals where a VC invests $6 million at a premoney valuation of $1 million.
如果估值随着投资金额的变化而变化,这恰恰说明了估值距离反映公司的某种实际价值有多么遥远。
If valuations change depending on the amount invested, that shows how far they are from reflecting any kind of value of the company.
既然估值是捏造出来的,创始人就不该对它太上心。这根本不是该关注的重点。事实上,估值过高反而是坏事。要是你按 1000 万美元的投前估值融资,你就别指望能以 2000 万美元卖掉公司了。公司必须卖到 5000 万美元以上,风投才能勉强拿到 5 倍回报,而对他们来说这已经算低的了。他们更有可能逼着你撑到能卖 1 亿为止。可要求售价越高,被收购的几率就越低;出得起 1000 万美元买你的买家多得很,但能掏出 1 亿的屈指可数。既然创业对创始人来说就像一门非及格即挂科的课程,你该争取的应该是成功落袋的几率,而不是自己手里守着多少百分比的股权。
Since valuations are made up, founders shouldn't care too much about them. That's not the part to focus on. In fact, a high valuation can be a bad thing. If you take funding at a premoney valuation of $10 million, you won't be selling the company for 20. You'll have to sell for over 50 for the VCs to get even a 5x return, which is low to them. More likely they'll want you to hold out for 100. But needing to get a high price decreases the chance of getting bought at all; many companies can buy you for $10 million, but only a handful for 100. And since a startup is like a pass/fail course for the founders, what you want to optimize is your chance of a good outcome, not the percentage of the company you keep.
那么为什么创始人还要追求高估值呢?他们被错位的野心欺骗了。他们觉得拿到更高的估值就意味着取得了更大的成就。他们通常认识其他创始人,如果自己拿到更高的估值,就可以说“我的比你的大”。但融资并不是真正的考验。真正的考验是 founders 最终拿到了什么,而过高的估值可能只会降低获得好结果的可能性。
So why do founders chase high valuations? They're tricked by misplaced ambition. They feel they've achieved more if they get a higher valuation. They usually know other founders, and if they get a higher valuation they can say "mine is bigger than yours." But funding is not the real test. The real test is the final outcome for the founder, and getting too high a valuation may just make a good outcome less likely.
高估值的唯一好处是股份稀释较少。但有另一个没那么性感的方法可以达到同样的目的:少拿点钱就行。
The one advantage of a high valuation is that you get less dilution. But there is another less sexy way to achieve that: just take less money.
9. 投资人寻找像当下明星那样的创始人。
9. Investors look for founders like the current stars.
十年前,投资人在寻找下一个比尔·盖茨。这是一个错误,因为微软是一个非常反常的创业公司。他们起初几乎是一个合同编程业务,他们之所以变得庞大,是因为 IBM 恰好把 PC 标准送到了他们手上。
Ten years ago investors were looking for the next Bill Gates. This was a mistake, because Microsoft was a very anomalous startup. They started almost as a contract programming operation, and the reason they became huge was that IBM happened to drop the PC standard in their lap.
如今所有的风投都在寻找下一个 Larry 和 Sergey。这是个好苗头,因为 Larry 和 Sergey 更贴近理想中的创业公司创始人。
Now all the VCs are looking for the next Larry and Sergey. This is a good trend, because Larry and Sergey are closer to the ideal startup founders.
从前,投资人觉得创始人懂商业至关重要。因此他们乐于资助由 MBA 组成的团队,这帮人打算拿了钱去雇程序员来帮他们做产品。这就像是投资 Steve Ballmer,指望他雇来的程序员会是 Bill Gates 一样——从互联网泡沫时期的种种教训来看,未免本末倒置。如今大多数风投都明白该投资懂技术的人。顶尖基金里这种倾向尤为明显;只有二流基金还在热衷于投 MBA。
Historically investors thought it was important for a founder to be an expert in business. So they were willing to fund teams of MBAs who planned to use the money to pay programmers to build their product for them. This is like funding Steve Ballmer in the hope that the programmer he'll hire is Bill Gates—kind of backward, as the events of the Bubble showed. Now most VCs know they should be funding technical guys. This is more pronounced among the very top funds; the lamer ones still want to fund MBAs.
如果你是个黑客,投资人寻找拉里和谢尔盖是个好消息。坏消息是,唯一能找对人的投资人,是那些在他们还只是两个计算机系研究生时就认识他们的人,而不是今天那些自信的媒体明星。投资人至今仍不明白的是,伟大的创始人在最开始时看起来是多么的迷茫和试探。
If you're a hacker, it's good news that investors are looking for Larry and Sergey. The bad news is, the only investors who can do it right are the ones who knew them when they were a couple of CS grad students, not the confident media stars they are today. What investors still don't get is how clueless and tentative great founders can seem at the very beginning.
10. 投资人的贡献往往被低估了。
10. The contribution of investors tends to be underestimated.
投资人对创业公司的帮助不仅限于给钱。他们在达成交易和引荐关系方面很有帮助,而且一些更聪明的投资人,尤其是天使投资人,能对产品给出很好的建议。
Investors do more for startups than give them money. They're helpful in doing deals and arranging introductions, and some of the smarter ones, particularly angels, can give good advice about the product.
事实上,我认为区分伟大投资人与平庸投资人的标准在于他们给出的建议质量。大多数投资人都给建议,但顶尖的投资人给出的是好建议。
In fact, I'd say what separates the great investors from the mediocre ones is the quality of their advice. Most investors give advice, but the top ones give good advice.
无论投资人给创业公司提供了什么帮助,往往都会被低估。让外界认为所有东西都是创始人想出来的,对大家都有利。投资人的目标是让公司升值,如果看起来所有好点子都来自公司内部,公司似乎就更有价值。
Whatever help investors give a startup tends to be underestimated. It's to everyone's advantage to let the world think the founders thought of everything. The goal of the investors is for the company to become valuable, and the company seems more valuable if it seems like all the good ideas came from within.
媒体对创始人的痴迷加剧了这一趋势。在一家由两个人创办的公司中,10% 的想法可能来自他们雇佣的第一名员工。否则,可以说他们的招聘工作做得很失败。然而,这个人几乎会被媒体完全忽略。
This trend is compounded by the obsession that the press has with founders. In a company founded by two people, 10% of the ideas might come from the first guy they hire. Arguably they've done a bad job of hiring otherwise. And yet this guy will be almost entirely overlooked by the press.
作为一个创始人,我要说:创始人的贡献总是被高估了。这里的危险在于,新创始人看着现有的创始人,会觉得他们是超人,自己根本无法企及。实际上,在幕后有上百种不同类型的支持人员在让整场演出成为可能。[3]
I say this as a founder: the contribution of founders is always overestimated. The danger here is that new founders, looking at existing founders, will think that they're supermen that one couldn't possibly equal oneself. Actually they have a hundred different types of support people just offscreen making the whole show possible. [3]
11. 风投害怕丢人。
11. VCs are afraid of looking bad.
发现大多数风投有多胆小,让我大为吃惊。他们似乎非常害怕在合伙人面前丢脸,或许也害怕在有限合伙人——也就是把钱交给他们打理的幕后出资人——面前交待不过去。
I've been very surprised to discover how timid most VCs are. They seem to be afraid of looking bad to their partners, and perhaps also to the limited partners—the people whose money they invest.
从风投极不情愿承担风险的态度上,就能看出这种恐惧有多深。你能看得出来,有些项目换作他们以天使投资人的身份也许愿意投,但用基金的钱去投却绝不敢碰。不过,说风投不愿承担风险并不十分准确。确切地说,他们是不愿意做那些可能会显得难看的事。这完全是两码事。
You can measure this fear in how much less risk VCs are willing to take. You can tell they won't make investments for their fund that they might be willing to make themselves as angels. Though it's not quite accurate to say that VCs are less willing to take risks. They're less willing to do things that might look bad. That's not the same thing.
例如,大多数风投都极不愿意投资由两个 18 岁黑客创办的公司,无论他们多么才华横溢。因为一旦项目黄了,合伙人就会指着鼻子质问:“什么,你把我们几百万美元的钱投给了两个 18 岁的小屁孩?”然而,如果一个风投去投三个 40 多岁、打算把产品开发外包出去的前银行高管——在我看来,这其实比投两个绝顶聪明的 18 岁黑客风险大得多——即便失败了,也没人能挑他的刺,毕竟这桩投资表面上看无比审慎。
For example, most VCs would be very reluctant to invest in a startup founded by a pair of 18 year old hackers, no matter how brilliant, because if the startup failed their partners could turn on them and say "What, you invested $x million of our money in a pair of 18 year olds?" Whereas if a VC invested in a startup founded by three former banking executives in their 40s who planned to outsource their product development—which to my mind is actually a lot riskier than investing in a pair of really smart 18 year olds—he couldn't be faulted, if it failed, for making such an apparently prudent investment.
正如我一个朋友所言:“多数风投绝不敢做任何在养老基金主管那帮蠢货听来觉得不靠谱的事。”天使投资人之所以能承担更大的风险,是因为他们无须向任何人交代。
As a friend of mine said, "Most VCs can't do anything that would sound bad to the kind of doofuses who run pension funds." Angels can take greater risks because they don't have to answer to anyone.
12. 被投资人拒绝并不意味着什么。
12. Being turned down by investors doesn't mean much.
有些创始人被投资人拒绝后极度沮丧。完全没必要往心里去。首先,投资人经常看走眼。几乎所有成功的创业公司,都在某个阶段被投资人拒之门外过。拒掉 Google 的风投多得是。显而易见,投资人的反应并不是什么有说服力的检验标准。
Some founders are quite dejected when they get turned down by investors. They shouldn't take it so much to heart. To start with, investors are often wrong. It's hard to think of a successful startup that wasn't turned down by investors at some point. Lots of VCs rejected Google. So obviously the reaction of investors is not a very meaningful test.
投资人拒绝你,往往是出于极其表面化的理由。我读到过一个风投拒绝一家创业公司的故事,仅仅是因为他们把股份切得太碎,以至于敲定协议时需要签的名字太多了。[4] 投资人之所以敢这么干,是因为他们能看的项目实在太多了。哪怕因为某些皮毛缺陷而低估了你,对他们也无所谓,因为下一个候选项目几乎一样好。就像在超市挑苹果。你拿起一个带着微小磕碰的。也许只是表皮蹭破了一点,但既然有那么多完好无损的苹果可以选,谁又犯得着去核实呢?
Investors will often reject you for what seem to be superficial reasons. I read of one VC who turned down a startup simply because they'd given away so many little bits of stock that the deal required too many signatures to close. [4] The reason investors can get away with this is that they see so many deals. It doesn't matter if they underestimate you because of some surface imperfection, because the next best deal will be almost as good. Imagine picking out apples at a grocery store. You grab one with a little bruise. Maybe it's just a surface bruise, but why even bother checking when there are so many other unbruised apples to choose from?
投资人会第一个承认他们经常犯错。所以当你被投资人拒绝时,不要想“我们很烂”,而是要问“我们真的很烂吗?”拒绝是一个问题,而不是答案。
Investors would be the first to admit they're often wrong. So when you get rejected by investors, don't think "we suck," but instead ask "do we suck?" Rejection is a question, not an answer.
13. 投资人是情绪化的。
13. Investors are emotional.
我很惊讶地发现投资人可以如此情绪化。你本以为他们会冷酷而精于计算,或者至少公事公办,但通常他们不是这样。我不确定是他们的权力地位让他们变成这样,还是涉及的巨额资金所致,但投资谈判很容易演变成个人恩怨。如果你得罪了投资人,他们会拂袖而去。
I've been surprised to discover how emotional investors can be. You'd expect them to be cold and calculating, or at least businesslike, but often they're not. I'm not sure if it's their position of power that makes them this way, or the large sums of money involved, but investment negotiations can easily turn personal. If you offend investors, they'll leave in a huff.
不久前,一家知名风投机构向我们种子轮资助过的一家创业公司开出了 A 轮投资意向。随后他们听说另一家竞争对手风投也对此有意。因为太害怕被创始人选了别家而颜面尽失,他们给这家创业公司开出了所谓的“限时失效条款清单”(exploding termsheet)。我记得他们只给了 24 小时考虑,过期作废。限时条款是种有些可疑的手段,但也并不少见。真正让我吃惊的是我打电话去沟通时他们的反应。我问他们,如果那家对手风投最终没有出价,他们是否还愿意投这家公司?他们说不投了。这么回答能有什么理性依据?如果他们打心底里觉得这家公司值得投,别家风投怎么想跟他们又有什么关系?按理说,他们对有限合伙人负有的责任,理当是只管投向自己所能找到的最佳机会;如果竞争对手弃投,他们应该高兴才对,因为这意味着对手看走眼漏掉了好机会。但显然他们的决策毫无理性可言。他们只是咽不下接盘对手弃牌的那口气罢了。
A while ago an eminent VC firm offered a series A round to a startup we'd seed funded. Then they heard a rival VC firm was also interested. They were so afraid that they'd be rejected in favor of this other firm that they gave the startup what's known as an "exploding termsheet." They had, I think, 24 hours to say yes or no, or the deal was off. Exploding termsheets are a somewhat dubious device, but not uncommon. What surprised me was their reaction when I called to talk about it. I asked if they'd still be interested in the startup if the rival VC didn't end up making an offer, and they said no. What rational basis could they have had for saying that? If they thought the startup was worth investing in, what difference should it make what some other VC thought? Surely it was their duty to their limited partners simply to invest in the best opportunities they found; they should be delighted if the other VC said no, because it would mean they'd overlooked a good opportunity. But of course there was no rational basis for their decision. They just couldn't stand the idea of taking this rival firm's rejects.
在这个案例中,限时条款并不仅仅(或者说压根不只是)一种向创业公司施压的谈判策略。它更像中学生那种“抢在你甩我之前先把你甩了”的把戏。在更早的一篇文章中,我曾说风投很像高中女生。有几位风投拿这个比喻开过玩笑,但从没有人站出来反驳过。
In this case the exploding termsheet was not (or not only) a tactic to pressure the startup. It was more like the high school trick of breaking up with someone before they can break up with you. In an earlier essay I said that VCs were a lot like high school girls. A few VCs have joked about that characterization, but none have disputed it.
14. 谈判在签字画押前从未停止。
14. The negotiation never stops till the closing.
大多数投资或收购交易分为两个阶段。第一阶段是对大方向进行谈判。如果成功,你会拿到一份意向书(termsheet),之所以这么叫,是因为它概述了交易的核心条款。意向书没有法律约束力,但它是一个确定的步骤。它本应意味着一旦律师敲定所有细节,交易就会发生。理论上这些细节都是小事;根据定义,所有重要观点都应该在意向书中涵盖了。
Most deals, for investment or acquisition, happen in two phases. There's an initial phase of negotiation about the big questions. If this succeeds you get a termsheet, so called because it outlines the key terms of a deal. A termsheet is not legally binding, but it is a definite step. It's supposed to mean that a deal is going to happen, once the lawyers work out all the details. In theory these details are minor ones; by definition all the important points are supposed to be covered in the termsheet.
缺乏经验和一厢情愿的想法结合在一起,让创始人觉得拿到意向书就等于搞定了交易。他们希望交易达成;每个人表现得就像交易已经达成;所以交易一定达成了。但实际上并没有,而且可能还要等上几个月。在几个月里,创业公司可能会发生很大变化。投资人和收购方产生“买家悔单”并不罕见。因此,你必须一直推进、一直推销,直到最终完成交易。否则,意向书中未指明的所有“次要”细节都将被解释为对你不利。对方甚至可能撕毁交易;如果他们这么做,他们通常会抓住一些技术细节或声称你误导了他们,而不是承认他们改变了主意。
Inexperience and wishful thinking combine to make founders feel that when they have a termsheet, they have a deal. They want there to be a deal; everyone acts like they have a deal; so there must be a deal. But there isn't and may not be for several months. A lot can change for a startup in several months. It's not uncommon for investors and acquirers to get buyer's remorse. So you have to keep pushing, keep selling, all the way to the close. Otherwise all the "minor" details left unspecified in the termsheet will be interpreted to your disadvantage. The other side may even break the deal; if they do that, they'll usually seize on some technicality or claim you misled them, rather than admitting they changed their minds.
在交易最终完成前,要对投资人或收购方保持压力可能很困难,因为最有效的压力来自其他投资人或收购方的竞争,而这些竞争对手在你拿到意向书时往往就退出了。你应该尽量与这些竞争对手保持亲密的朋友关系,但最重要的事情是保持你创业公司的势头。投资人或收购方选择你是因为你看起来很火。继续做任何让你看起来很火的事情。继续发布新功能;继续获取新用户;继续在媒体和博客上被提及。
It can be hard to keep the pressure on an investor or acquirer all the way to the closing, because the most effective pressure is competition from other investors or acquirers, and these tend to drop away when you get a termsheet. You should try to stay as close friends as you can with these rivals, but the most important thing is just to keep up the momentum in your startup. The investors or acquirers chose you because you seemed hot. Keep doing whatever made you seem hot. Keep releasing new features; keep getting new users; keep getting mentioned in the press and in blogs.
15. 投资人喜欢联合投资。
15. Investors like to co-invest.
投资人有多乐于拼单合投,着实让我感到意外。你或许会以为,要是他们发现了个好项目,肯定恨不得独吞,但他们看起来简直是迫不及待地想联合投资。天使投资人这么做很好理解:他们的投资规模较小,不希望在单笔交易里押注太多资金。但风投也频繁合投。这是为什么?
I've been surprised how willing investors are to split deals. You might think that if they found a good deal they'd want it all to themselves, but they seem positively eager to syndicate. This is understandable with angels; they invest on a smaller scale and don't like to have too much money tied up in any one deal. But VCs also share deals a lot. Why?
我觉得部分原因在于我前面提到的那条法则:除了业务数据,风投最在意的就是其他风投的态度。如果一家公司有多个风投表现出兴趣,谈成的几率就大得多;所以在谈成的交易中,由多家共同投资的比例自然也就更高。
Partly I think this is an artifact of the rule I quoted earlier: after traffic, VCs care most what other VCs think. A deal that has multiple VCs interested in it is more likely to close, so of deals that close, more will have multiple investors.
让多家风投共同参与一笔交易,倒有一个合乎理性的理由:任何与你联合投资的投资人,都少了一个可能去资助竞争对手的投资人。据说当年 Kleiner 和 Sequoia 都不太乐意平分 Google 的投资案,但至少从双方各自的角度来看,它带来了一个好处:对方大概率不会再去资助一家竞争对手了。因此,分摊投资的好处,倒跟混淆父系有异曲同工之妙。
There is one rational reason to want multiple VCs in a deal: Any investor who co-invests with you is one less investor who could fund a competitor. Apparently Kleiner and Sequoia didn't like splitting the Google deal, but it did at least have the advantage, from each one's point of view, that there probably wouldn't be a competitor funded by the other. Splitting deals thus has similar advantages to confusing paternity.
但我认为,风投热衷合投的主要原因,还是害怕丢人。如果有另一家机构一同分担,万一项目搞砸了,这笔投资看起来也更像是审慎之举——是众人共识的决定,而不单单是某个合伙人一时脑热的冲动。
But I think the main reason VCs like splitting deals is the fear of looking bad. If another firm shares the deal, then in the event of failure it will seem to have been a prudent choice—a consensus decision, rather than just the whim of an individual partner.
16. 投资人会串通。
16. Investors collude.
投资不受反垄断法的约束。至少最好不要受,因为投资人经常做一些在其他情况下属于非法的勾当。我个人就知道一些案例,一个投资人利用未来分享交易的承诺,说服另一个投资人放弃进行竞争性报价。
Investing is not covered by antitrust law. At least, it better not be, because investors regularly do things that would be illegal otherwise. I know personally of cases where one investor has talked another out of making a competitive offer, using the promise of sharing future deals.
原则上投资人都在竞争相同的交易,但合作精神强于竞争精神。原因同样是因为交易太多了。虽然专业投资人与他投资的创始人之间的关系可能比与其他投资人的关系更近,但他与创始人的关系只会持续几年,而他与其他机构的关系将持续他的整个职业生涯。他与其他投资人的互动虽然没有那么大的利益冲突,但数量会很多。专业投资人一直在互相交换小人情。
In principle investors are all competing for the same deals, but the spirit of cooperation is stronger than the spirit of competition. The reason, again, is that there are so many deals. Though a professional investor may have a closer relationship with a founder he invests in than with other investors, his relationship with the founder is only going to last a couple years, whereas his relationship with other firms will last his whole career. There isn't so much at stake in his interactions with other investors, but there will be a lot of them. Professional investors are constantly trading little favors.
投资人抱团的另一个原因,是为了维护投资人群体作为一个整体的话语权。因此,截至写这篇文章时,你是别想把投资人拉进一场为你 A 轮融资而设的公开竞拍中的。他们宁可丢掉这个项目,也不愿开创风投互相竞价抢项目的先例。一个高效的创业融资市场或许会在遥远的未来出现;大势所趋确实向那个方向发展;但眼下显然还没到那一步。
Another reason investors stick together is to preserve the power of investors as a whole. So you will not, as of this writing, be able to get investors into an auction for your series A round. They'd rather lose the deal than establish a precedent of VCs competitively bidding against one another. An efficient startup funding market may be coming in the distant future; things tend to move in that direction; but it's certainly not here now.
17. 大规模投资人关心的是他们的投资组合,而不是任何单一公司。
17. Large-scale investors care about their portfolio, not any individual company.
创业公司之所以运转得这么好,是因为每个有权力的人都拥有股权。他们中任何人成功的唯一途径就是大家一起成功。这让每个人在战术分歧之外,自然而然地朝着同一个方向使劲。
The reason startups work so well is that everyone with power also has equity. The only way any of them can succeed is if they all do. This makes everyone naturally pull in the same direction, subject to differences of opinion about tactics.
问题是,更大规模的投资人并没有完全相同的动力。接近,但不完全一样。他们不需要任何特定的创业公司成功,就像创始人需要的那样,他们只需要他们的投资组合整体成功。
The problem is, larger scale investors don't have exactly the same motivation. Close, but not identical. They don't need any given startup to succeed, like founders do, just their portfolio as a whole to. So in borderline cases the rational thing for them to do is to sacrifice unpromising startups.
大规模投资人通常把创业公司分成三类:成功的、失败的,以及“行尸走肉”——那些勉强维持运转、但在可见未来既不可能被收购也无法上市的公司。对创始人来说,“行尸走肉”这个词未免太刻薄。按普通标准来看,这些公司离失败还远得很。但在风险投资人眼里,它们与失败无异,而且耗费的时间和精力一点也不比成功的公司少。因此,如果这类公司面前摆着两条路,一条是稍微更稳妥、最终可能勉强行得通的保守策略,另一条是短时间内要么大获成功要么当场暴毙的冒险策略,风投一定会力推后者。在他们看来,这家公司反正已经当坏账计提了。早点见分晓,死活给个痛快,总好过半死不活地耗着。
Large-scale investors tend to put startups in three categories: successes, failures, and the "living dead"—companies that are plugging along but don't seem likely in the immediate future to get bought or go public. To the founders, "living dead" sounds harsh. These companies may be far from failures by ordinary standards. But they might as well be from a venture investor's point of view, and they suck up just as much time and attention as the successes. So if such a company has two possible strategies, a conservative one that's slightly more likely to work in the end, or a risky one that within a short time will either yield a giant success or kill the company, VCs will push for the kill-or-cure option. To them the company is already a write-off. Better to have resolution, one way or the other, as soon as possible.
要是某家创业公司陷入了绝境,风投可能非但不会出手相救,反倒会将其低价贱卖给他们投资组合里的另一家公司。Philip Greenspun 在《Founders at Work》中就提到,Ars Digita 的风投当年对他们干的就是这种事。
If a startup gets into real trouble, instead of trying to save it VCs may just sell it at a low price to another of their portfolio companies. Philip Greenspun said in Founders at Work that Ars Digita's VCs did this to them.
18. 投资人与创始人有不同的风险偏好。
18. Investors have different risk profiles from founders.
大多数人宁愿要 100% 获得 100 万美元的机会,也不愿要 20% 获得 1000 万美元的机会。投资人足够富有,可以保持理性并选择后者。因此,他们总是倾向于鼓励创始人继续掷骰子。如果公司做得很好,投资人会希望创始人拒绝大多数收购要约。事实上,大多数拒绝收购要约的创业公司最终确实做得更好。但对创始人来说,这仍然是令人毛骨悚然的,因为他们最终可能会一无所有。当有人提议以你的股票价值 500 万美元的价格收购你时,说“不”相当于拥有 500 万美元并将其全部押在轮盘赌的一次旋转上。
Most people would rather a 100% chance of $1 million than a 20% chance of $10 million. Investors are rich enough to be rational and prefer the latter. So they'll always tend to encourage founders to keep rolling the dice. If a company is doing well, investors will want founders to turn down most acquisition offers. And indeed, most startups that turn down acquisition offers ultimately do better. But it's still hair-raising for the founders, because they might end up with nothing. When someone's offering to buy you for a price at which your stock is worth $5 million, saying no is equivalent to having $5 million and betting it all on one spin of the roulette wheel.
投资人会告诉你公司价值更高。他们可能是对的。但这并不意味着卖掉是错的。任何将客户所有资产都投入单一非上市公司股票的财务顾问,可能都会因此被吊销执照。
Investors will tell you the company is worth more. And they may be right. But that doesn't mean it's wrong to sell. Any financial advisor who put all his client's assets in the stock of a single, private company would probably lose his license for it.
现在越来越多的投资人开始允许创始人适度套现一部分。这应该能缓解问题。大多数创始人的要求其实很低,一笔在投资人眼里算不上巨款的数目,就足以让他们觉得自己发财了。然而这种做法普及得太慢,因为风投害怕显得不负责任。没人愿意当第一个给创始人发了“滚蛋钱”(fuck-you money)结果真被对方甩一句“滚蛋”的风投。但在这种情况真正开始发生之前,我们心里都清楚,风投还是太保守了。
More and more, investors are letting founders cash out partially. That should correct the problem. Most founders have such low standards that they'll feel rich with a sum that doesn't seem huge to investors. But this custom is spreading too slowly, because VCs are afraid of seeming irresponsible. No one wants to be the first VC to give someone fuck-you money and then actually get told "fuck you." But until this does start to happen, we know VCs are being too conservative.
19. 投资人千差万别。
19. Investors vary greatly.
当年我自己做创始人时,总以为所有风投都一个样。况且他们打扮起来确实也都一个模样。全都是黑客嘴里所谓的“西装套路人”。但随着和风投打交道越来越多,我才明白,西装革履之下也有聪明与平庸之分。
Back when I was a founder I used to think all VCs were the same. And in fact they do all look the same. They're all what hackers call "suits." But since I've been dealing with VCs more I've learned that some suits are smarter than others.
而且他们所处的这个行业,赢家往往通吃,输家往往连败。一家风投机构如果过去战绩辉煌,大家就都挤破头想拿他们的钱,他们自然能在所有新项目中挑挑拣拣。风险投资市场这种自我强化的马太效应意味着,排名前十的机构与排在第一百名的机构完全生活在两个不同的世界。顶尖机构不仅更聪明,往往也更沉稳、更体面;他们不需要靠下三滥的手段来占便宜,也犯不着这么干,因为他们有更大的品牌声誉需要爱惜。
They're also in a business where winners tend to keep winning and losers to keep losing. When a VC firm has been successful in the past, everyone wants funding from them, so they get the pick of all the new deals. The self-reinforcing nature of the venture funding market means that the top ten firms live in a completely different world from, say, the hundredth. As well as being smarter, they tend to be calmer and more upstanding; they don't need to do iffy things to get an edge, and don't want to because they have more brand to protect.
如果你有挑选的奢侈,值得你拿钱的风投其实只有两类:“第一梯队”风投,也就是前 20 左右的机构,再加上少数几家新机构——它们之所以不在前 20 之列,纯粹只是因为成立时间还不够长。
There are only two kinds of VCs you want to take money from, if you have the luxury of choosing: the "top tier" VCs, meaning about the top 20 or so firms, plus a few new ones that are not among the top 20 only because they haven't been around long enough.
如果你是黑客,拿顶尖机构的钱尤为重要,因为他们更有底气。这意味着他们不太会像 90 年代风投常干的那样,硬塞给你一个懂商业的人来当 CEO。只要你看着聪明又有意愿,他们就会放手让你来掌舵。
It's particularly important to raise money from a top firm if you're a hacker, because they're more confident. That means they're less likely to stick you with a business guy as CEO, like VCs used to do in the 90s. If you seem smart and want to do it, they'll let you run the company.
20. 投资人没有意识到向他们融资要付出多大代价。
20. Investors don't realize how much it costs to raise money from them.
融资是一个巨大的时间黑洞,而这恰恰发生在创业公司最耗不起的时候。完成一轮融资需要五六个月并不罕见。六周已经算快的了。而且融资不仅仅是一件你可以放在后台运行的事。当你融资时,它不可避免地会成为公司的重心。这意味着开发产品不再是重心。
Raising money is a huge time suck at just the point where startups can least afford it. It's not unusual for it to take five or six months to close a funding round. Six weeks is fast. And raising money is not just something you can leave running as a background process. When you're raising money, it's inevitably the main focus of the company. Which means building the product isn't.
假设一家 Y Combinator 旗下的公司在 Demo Day 之后开始接触风投,并成功融到了钱,耗时仅仅用了相对较短的 8 周就敲定了交易。鉴于 Demo Day 是在入营第 10 周举行,这家公司此时才成立了 18 周。在它迄今为止 44% 的生命历程里,公司的头等大事居然是融资,而不是打磨产品。请注意,这还是结局圆满的一个范例。
Suppose a Y Combinator company starts talking to VCs after demo day, and is successful in raising money from them, closing the deal after a comparatively short 8 weeks. Since demo day occurs after 10 weeks, the company is now 18 weeks old. Raising money, rather than working on the product, has been the company's main focus for 44% of its existence. And mind you, this an example where things turned out well.
当创业公司在融资终于完成后重新开始开发产品时,那感觉就像是在生了一场长达数月的病后重新投入工作。他们已经失去了大部分势头。
When a startup does return to working on the product after a funding round finally closes, it's as if they were returning to work after a months-long illness. They've lost most of their momentum.
投资人根本不知道,由于他们花了这么长时间才完成投资,给他们投资的公司造成了多大的损害。但公司知道。因此,这里对于一种新型风险基金来说是一个巨大的机会:投资较少的金额,在较低的估值下,但承诺要么极快成交,要么极快拒绝。如果有这样一家机构,我会推荐创业公司优先选择它,而不是其他任何机构,无论对方名气有多大。创业公司靠速度和势头生存。
Investors have no idea how much they damage the companies they invest in by taking so long to do it. But companies do. So there is a big opportunity here for a new kind of venture fund that invests smaller amounts at lower valuations, but promises to either close or say no very quickly. If there were such a firm, I'd recommend it to startups in preference to any other, no matter how prestigious. Startups live on speed and momentum.
21. 投资人不喜欢说不。
21. Investors don't like to say no.
融资交易之所以拖这么久才敲定,主要是因为投资人自己下不了决心。风投又不是大企业;如果真有必要,他们 24 小时之内就能拍板做成一单。但他们通常会把最初的几轮会面硬生生拖上两三个星期。究其原因,正是由于我前面提过的那套筛选算法:多数人并不是试着去预判哪家创业公司能赢,而是要以最快速度察觉出谁已经在赢了。他们在意的是市场怎么看你、其他风投怎么看你,而这些东西是光靠跟你见个面看不出来的。
The reason funding deals take so long to close is mainly that investors can't make up their minds. VCs are not big companies; they can do a deal in 24 hours if they need to. But they usually let the initial meetings stretch out over a couple weeks. The reason is the selection algorithm I mentioned earlier. Most don't try to predict whether a startup will win, but to notice quickly that it already is winning. They care what the market thinks of you and what other VCs think of you, and they can't judge those just from meeting you.
由于投资的对象 (a) 变化极快,且 (b) 他们自己搞不懂,许多投资人拒绝你时,措辞都会留有余地,方便日后改口说自己当年根本没拒绝过你。要是你对这行不了解,甚至可能根本没意识到自己已经被拒了。风投拒绝你时通常是这么说的:
Because they're investing in things that (a) change fast and (b) they don't understand, a lot of investors will reject you in a way that can later be claimed not to have been a rejection. Unless you know this world, you may not even realize you've been rejected. Here's a VC saying no:
我们对你的项目非常兴奋,并希望在你进一步开发时保持密切联系。
We're really excited about your project, and we want to keep in close touch as you develop it further.
翻译成大白话就是:我们现在不投,但要是你看起来要火了,我们随时可能改主意。有时候他们更坦诚一些,直截了当地说需要“看到一些业务势头”。要是你开始暴涨用户,他们就会投你。可天底下哪个风投不是这样?所以他们无非是告诉你,你现在还停留在原地。
Translated into more straightforward language, this means: We're not investing in you, but we may change our minds if it looks like you're taking off. Sometimes they're more candid and say explicitly that they need to "see some traction." They'll invest in you if you start to get lots of users. But so would any VC. So all they're saying is that you're still at square 1.
这里有个办法,能测出风投给你的答复到底是同意还是拒绝。低头看看你的手。你手里拿着条款清单吗?
Here's a test for deciding whether a VC's response was yes or no. Look down at your hands. Are you holding a termsheet?
22. 你需要投资人。
22. You need investors.
有些创始人会说“谁需要投资人?”从经验来看,答案似乎是:每个想要成功的人。实际上,每个成功的创业公司在某个阶段都会接受外部投资。
Some founders say "Who needs investors?" Empirically the answer seems to be: everyone who wants to succeed. Practically every successful startup takes outside investment at some point.
为什么?那些认为自己不需要投资人的人忘记了他们会有竞争对手。问题不在于你是否需要外部投资,而在于它是否对你有任何帮助。如果答案是肯定的,而你没有拿投资,那么拿了投资的竞争对手就会比你更有优势。而在创业世界中,一点点优势就可以扩大成巨大的差距。
Why? What the people who think they don't need investors forget is that they will have competitors. The question is not whether you need outside investment, but whether it could help you at all. If the answer is yes, and you don't take investment, then competitors who do will have an advantage over you. And in the startup world a little advantage can expand into a lot.
迈克·莫里茨(Mike Moritz)有一句名言,他说他投资 Yahoo 是因为他认为他们比竞争对手领先了几个星期。这可能没有他想象的那么重要,因为 Google 在三年后出现并把 Yahoo 打得落花流水。但他所说的话不无道理。有时,微弱的领先优势会成长为二选一决策中胜出的那一半。
Mike Moritz famously said that he invested in Yahoo because he thought they had a few weeks' lead over their competitors. That may not have mattered quite so much as he thought, because Google came along three years later and kicked Yahoo's ass. But there is something in what he said. Sometimes a small lead can grow into the yes half of a binary choice.
也许随着创办一家公司的成本越来越低,在没有外部资金的情况下在竞争激烈的市场中取得成功将变得可能。融资确实是有成本的。但截至撰写本文时,经验证据表明,这依然是一个净赢的选择。
Maybe as it gets cheaper to start a startup, it will start to be possible to succeed in a competitive market without outside funding. There are certainly costs to raising money. But as of this writing the empirical evidence says it's a net win.
23. 投资人喜欢你不需要他们。
23. Investors like it when you don't need them.
许多创始人接近投资人时,表现得就像需要他们的许可才能创办公司一样——就像考大学一样。但创办大多数公司并不需要投资人;他们只是让事情变得更容易。
A lot of founders approach investors as if they needed their permission to start a company—as if it were like getting into college. But you don't need investors to start most companies; they just make it easier.
事实上,投资人更喜欢你不需要他们。无论是在意识上还是潜意识里,最让他们兴奋的是那种对他们说“火车要出站了,你上不上车?”的创业公司,而不是那种说“求求你,能不能给我们点钱开个公司?”的公司。
And in fact, investors greatly prefer it if you don't need them. What excites them, both consciously and unconsciously, is the sort of startup that approaches them saying "the train's leaving the station; are you in or out?" not the one saying "please can we have some money to start a company?"
大多数投资人在某种意义上是“受虐狂”,他们最喜欢的创业公司是那些对他们粗鲁的公司。当 Google 塞给 Kleiner 和 Sequoia 7500 万美元的投前估值时,他们的反应可能是“哎哟!这感觉太棒了。”他们是对的,不是吗?那笔交易给他们带来的收益可能超过了他们做过的任何其他交易。
Most investors are "bottoms" in the sense that the startups they like most are those that are rough with them. When Google stuck Kleiner and Sequoia with a $75 million premoney valuation, their reaction was probably "Ouch! That feels so good." And they were right, weren't they? That deal probably made them more than any other they've done.
问题在于,风投非常擅长察言观色。所以除非你真是下一个 Google,否则别轻易跟他们摆出一副强硬姿态,他们一眼就能看穿。比起故作强硬,绝大多数创业公司更该做的是:永远留有后手。无论哪位投资人说了“不”,手头都永远有一套能把事情做下去的备选方案。拥有退路,就是让自己永远不必走上退路的最好保障。
The thing is, VCs are pretty good at reading people. So don't try to act tough with them unless you really are the next Google, or they'll see through you in a second. Instead of acting tough, what most startups should do is simply always have a backup plan. Always have some alternative plan for getting started if any given investor says no. Having one is the best insurance against needing one.
所以你不应该创办一家起步成本很高的创业公司,因为那样你就会任由投资人摆布。如果你最终想做一些成本很高的事情,先从做它的一个较便宜的子集开始,并在融到更多钱时扩大你的野心。
So you shouldn't start a startup that's expensive to start, because then you'll be at the mercy of investors. If you ultimately want to do something that will cost a lot, start by doing a cheaper subset of it, and expand your ambitions when and if you raise more money.
显然,核战争后最有可能存活下来的动物是蟑螂,因为它们极难被杀死。这就是你作为创业公司在最初阶段想要成为的样子。与其做一朵美丽但脆弱的花,必须把茎插在塑料管里支撑自己,不如做个矮小、丑陋且不可毁灭的蟑螂。
Apparently the most likely animals to be left alive after a nuclear war are cockroaches, because they're so hard to kill. That's what you want to be as a startup, initially. Instead of a beautiful but fragile flower that needs to have its stem in a plastic tube to support itself, better to be small, ugly, and indestructible.
注释
Notes
[1] 我可能低估了风投的作用。他们或许在 IPO 阶段扮演了某些幕后角色,而如果你想打造硅谷,IPO 终究是必不可少的。
[1] I may be underestimating VCs. They may play some behind the scenes role in IPOs, which you ultimately need if you want to create a silicon valley.
[2] 有少数几家风投提供了接收商业计划书的邮箱,但通过这种方式拿到钱的创业公司基本上为零。你永远应该寻求熟人引荐——而且要引荐给合伙人,而不是投资经理。
[2] A few VCs have an email address you can send your business plan to, but the number of startups that get funded this way is basically zero. You should always get a personal introduction—and to a partner, not an associate.
[3] 几个人告诉我们,关于创业学校(Startup School)最有价值的一点是,他们看到了著名的创业公司创始人,并意识到他们只是普通人。虽然我们很高兴提供这项服务,但这通常不是我们向潜在演讲者推介创业学校的方式。
[3] Several people have told us that the most valuable thing about startup school was that they got to see famous startup founders and realized they were just ordinary guys. Though we're happy to provide this service, this is not generally the way we pitch startup school to potential speakers.
[4] 在我听来,这其实更像是个风投反悔了,然后拿技术细节当借口来推脱交易。但连这也算得上个像样的借口,本身就很说明问题了。
[4] Actually this sounds to me like a VC who got buyer's remorse, then used a technicality to get out of the deal. But it's telling that it even seemed a plausible excuse.
感谢 Sam Altman、Paul Buchheit、Hutch Fishman 和 Robert Morris 阅读了本文的草稿,并感谢 ASES 的 Kenneth King 邀请我演讲。
Thanks to Sam Altman, Paul Buchheit, Hutch Fishman, and Robert Morris for reading drafts of this, and to Kenneth King of ASES for inviting me to speak.